Awards

Final 2021 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Mank, Minari, Nomadland Set to be Best Picture Nominees

final-2021-oscar-nomination-predictions:-mank,-minari,-nomadland-set-to-be-best-picture-nominees

The year 2020 proved to be a landmark year in so many ways. The pandemic not only changed the way we live and function but also forced us to rethink how we consume entertainment. While streaming services like Netflix and Hulu thrived, several movie theaters are on the brink of extinction. One does wonder if the downfall of movie theaters will lead filmmakers to think differently and start making movies that are more suitable for the small screen rather than the big theatrical experience.

Taking cognizance of the changing viewing habits, even the Academy tweaked the rules of eligibility for Oscar consideration this year. The films that released directly on streaming services were eligible to contest at Oscars and as a result, the highest ever number of movies, 366, are competing for Best Picture Oscar this year. But more number of films doesn’t necessarily mean better quality of films. While there were a few memorable films that released last year, overall 2020 was one of the weakest years in cinema in recent memory. Many filmmakers and movie studios decided to not release their films because they wanted the viewers to experience their creation on big screens rather than streaming services.

In any case, today, we are here to make some predictions and that’s what we going to do. One advantage of having a weak year is that predicting Oscars becomes slightly less complicated. In most years, there are at least ten contenders fighting for five spots, but this year, barring a few categories, you might have to look very hard to find more than seven to eight contenders. A category like Best Actress that had over ten very strong contenders last year doesn’t even have seven solid contenders this year. Even Best Picture, which normally has 15-20 movies competing for 8-9 spots, has only 12 solid contenders.

Despite the fact, the Oscar race might not be as tightly contested this year, when it comes to making actual predictions you have to be extra careful in not allowing yourself to be partial towards your favorites. The secret of my success in making over 85% of correct predictions every year for the last seven years is that I try very hard to disassociate myself from how much I like a particular film. What only matters to me is historical data and the precursor awards. And obviously, above all, I trust my intuition to tell which direction the wind is blowing.

With that said, here’s the full list of predictions in all 20 categories of Oscars 2021. It is a long list and you will need some time to go through it one by one. So take your time.

Nominations for the 93rd Academy Awards will be announced at 5:19 am PT on Monday, 15th March.

Best Picture

Nomadland


The Trial of the Chicago 7


Minari


Mank


Promising Young Woman


One Night in Miami


Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom


Sound of Metal


The Father


Judas and the Black Messiah

Potential Surprises: News of the World; Da 5 Bloods

Best Director

Chloe Zhao, Nomadland


David Fincher, Mank


Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7


Lee Isaac Chung, Minari


Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

Potential Surprise: Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods

Best Actor

Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom


Anthony Hopkins, The Father


Gary Oldman, Mank


Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal


Steven Yeun, Minari

Potential Surprise: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods


Best Actress

Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman


Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom


Frances McDormand, Nomadland


Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman


Andra Day, United States vs. Billie Holiday

Potential Surprise: Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

Best Supporting Actor

Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah


Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami


Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7


Paul Raci, Sound of Metal


Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods

Potential Surprise: Alan Kim, Minari

Best Supporting Actress

Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari


Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy


Olivia Colman, The Father


Amanda Seyfriend, Mank


Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Potential Surprise: Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nomadland


One Night in Miami


Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom


The Father


News of the World

Potential Surprise: The White Tiger

Best Original Screenplay

Promising Young Woman


The Trial of the Chicago 7


Minari


Mank


Sound of Metal

Potential Surprise: Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Cinematography

Mank


Nomadland


Judas and the Black Messiah


News of the World


The Trial of the Chicago 7

Potential Surprise: Tenet

Best Film Editing

Nomadland


The Trial of the Chicago 7


Mank


Sound of Metal


Promising Young Woman

Potential Surprise: Minari

Best Costume Design

Mank


Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom


Emma


Judas and the Black Messiah


Mulan

Potential Surprise: One Night in Miami

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Mank


Hillbilly Elegy


Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom


Birds of Prey


Pinocchio

Potential Surprise: Emma


Best Production Design

Mank


Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom


News of the Wold


Mulan


Tenet

Potential Surprise: The Midnight Sky

Best Original Score

Soul


Mank


News of the World


Minari


The Midnight Sky

Potential Surprise: Tenet

Best Original Song

Speak Now, One Night in Miami


Lo Si, Seen


Fight for You, Judas and the Black Messiah


Hear My Voice, The Trial of the Chicago 7


Turntables, All In: The Fight for Democracy

Potential Surprise: Husavik, Eurovision Song Contest

Best Sound

Sound of Metal


Greyhound


News of the World


Mank


Tenet

Potential Surprise: The Trial of the Chicago 7; Soul

Best Visual Effects

Tenet


The Midnight Sky


Mank


Welcome to Chechnya


Mulan

Potential Surprise: One and Only Ivan

Best Animated Feature

Soul


Wolfwalkers


Onward


The Croods: New Age


Over the Moon

Potential Surprise: Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

Best Foreign Film

Another Round


The Two of Us


Collective


La Llorona


Quo Vadis, Aida?

Potential Surprise: Dear Comrades

Best Documentary Feature

Time


Boys State


Dick Johnson Is Dead


Collective


Welcome to Chechnya

Potential Surprise: Crip Camp




Final Tally





Mank: 12 nominations


The Trial of the Chicago 7: 7 nominations


Nomadland: 6 nominations


Minari: 6 nominations


Sound of Metal: 6 nominations


Promising Young Woman: 5 nominations



Read More: Best Movies of 2020

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